Every autumn the same headline comes back: Medicare Advantage is being eliminated, and a million seniors are about to lose coverage. The program isn't being eliminated. Individual plans do end, one company at a time, and when yours is one of them you find out the same way every year: by mail, from the insurer, on a deadline the regulation sets. This page is about telling those two situations apart, and about the one right that a plan exit hands you that a voluntary switch never does.
You may have seen the figure of 1.1 million members losing a plan for 2027. As of September 2026 that's an estimate circulating in videos and attributed to the insurance industry. We looked for a federal record of it and found none, so it isn't repeated here as fact. A national estimate can't tell you what's happening to your coverage anyway. Your own letter can.
Can a Medicare Advantage plan just stop existing?
Yes, and the rule that allows it is short. Every Medicare Advantage plan runs under a contract between the company and Medicare, and contracts run for a period of at least 12 months, renewed annually only if neither side has given notice of an intention not to renew.Source: govinfo.gov, 42 CFR 422.505(b), (c).
The regulation then says a Medicare Advantage organization may elect not to renew its contract as of the end of the term for any reason. If it does, it has to notify CMS in writing by the first Monday in June of the year the contract would end, and notify each Medicare enrollee by mail at least 90 calendar days before the nonrenewal is effective. That mailing has to include a CMS-approved written description of the alternative plan options available, or the company has to make outbound calls to every affected enrollee.Source: govinfo.gov, 42 CFR 422.506(a)(1), (a)(2).
Stand-alone drug plans run under the mirror image of that rule. A Part D sponsor may also elect not to renew for any reason, tells CMS by the first Monday of June, and notifies each enrollee by mail at least 90 calendar days ahead with the same description-or-calls requirement.Source: govinfo.gov, 42 CFR 423.507(a).
One company's plans ending isn't the program ending. It's also not something you have to go looking for: the same rule that permits the exit requires the letter.
Which letter did you get?
In September two envelopes go out that look alike, and they come from two different legal processes. Telling them apart takes about ten seconds once you know the sentence to look for.
The two notices
- A change notice (the Annual Notice of Change). It describes changes in coverage and cost that take effect in January and assumes your coverage continues. Your job is to compare.
- A non-renewal notice, which the Medigap guide calls a termination notice. It says the plan won't be offered next year and you're not being moved into another of the company's plans. Your job is to choose what replaces it, and to watch a clock.
- The case that looks like the second and is the first: a letter saying your plan is being combined into another plan from the same company. Coverage continues under the new plan, so the non-renewal section below isn't your case.
- Source: medicare.gov, Plan Annual Notice of Change; 42 CFR 422.506 and 423.507.
Keep whichever one arrived. If the plan is ending, the date printed in that notice is what your Medigap window is measured from.
When is the September Medicare letter due?
By September 30, and that date comes out of the regulation rather than the plan's schedule. For changes that take effect on January 1, a plan must notify all enrollees at least 15 days before the Annual Coordinated Election Period begins. Open Enrollment begins October 15. Count back 15 days.Source: govinfo.gov, 42 CFR 422.111(d)(2); the Part D mirror is 42 CFR 423.128(g)(2).
Medicare's own page on that letter says three things: your plan sends it, it arrives in September, and it includes the changes in coverage and costs that will be effective in January. If it doesn't reach you, Medicare's instruction is a single line: contact your plan.Source: medicare.gov, Plan Annual Notice of Change.
A plan that isn't renewing has a different deadline, 90 days before the nonrenewal takes effect. For coverage ending December 31 that lands around the start of October, which is why a termination notice can arrive a few days after the ordinary letters.
What are the four lines to check in the letter?
Plans can change cost, coverage, and which providers and pharmacies are in their networks each year, so the comparison is always the same four.Source: cms.gov, Medicare Open Enrollment partner resources.
Premium, deductible, drug list, doctors
- The monthly premium. Write down what you pay now and what the letter says you'll pay in January. An unchanged plan name isn't an unchanged price.
- The deductible. For drug coverage the 2027 standard figure is $700, up from $615. A plan can set a lower one; the standard figure is the most it can be.
- The drug list. The letter flags that the formulary is changing; the list itself is a separate document. Check each of your medicines by name in the plan's 2027 formulary, not by category.
- The network. For a Medicare Advantage plan that's doctors and pharmacies; a stand-alone drug plan has a pharmacy network and no doctor list. Confirm the ones you actually use before December 7.
- Source: CMS, 2027 Announcement, April 6, 2026 (deductible $700, out-of-pocket threshold $2,400); 42 CFR 423.104(e)(1) (a plan's deductible may not exceed the standard).
Two of those numbers are settled before any letter arrives. For 2027 the standard deductible on Medicare drug coverage is $700 and the point after which you pay nothing more for covered drugs is $2,400, both published by CMS on April 6, 2026. CMS also said in July that it will discontinue the premium stabilization demonstration at the end of 2026, which had held down the base premium on the stand-alone drug plans that took part.Source: cms.gov, Medicare Part D 2027 national average monthly bid amount, July 28, 2026 (base beneficiary premium $41.33; national average monthly bid $296.05). That doesn't tell you what your plan will charge. It tells you to read the number instead of assuming it. The 2027 Part D figures are on one page here.
One group gets no plan letter at all: if you have Original Medicare and no private Medicare health or drug plan, nothing is coming, because there's no plan to send it. The number to watch instead is the Part B premium, which arrives in a separate CMS announcement in the fall, the way the $202.90 standard premium for 2026 did.Source: cms.gov, 2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles. If that premium is a strain, a state program may pay it for you, and that application has nothing to do with Open Enrollment.
What becomes true if your plan is not renewed?
Three things, and none of them apply to someone who simply chose to switch plans.
A Special Enrollment Period. When a plan's contract isn't renewed, Medicare's page says your chance to switch runs from December 8 to the last day of February. A plan that voluntarily ends its contract carries a different window: it starts 2 months before the contract ends and closes 1 full month after.Source: medicare.gov, Special Enrollment Periods.
A default, which is also a decision. If a Medicare Advantage plan is ending and you do nothing, Medicare's page says you'll be enrolled in Original Medicare. That's Part A and Part B on January 1, with no cap on your share of the bills unless a Medigap policy or Medicaid covers it, and no drug coverage from the plan that ended. If only a stand-alone drug plan is ending, your medical coverage doesn't change, and on January 1 that drug coverage is gone until you join another, unless you get Extra Help, in which case Medicare may move you into a new one.
A Medigap right with no health questions. This one belongs to Medicare Advantage members, and it's the reason a termination notice is worth more than the plan it ends.
How does the guaranteed-issue Medigap right work?
If your Medicare Advantage plan is leaving Medicare or stops giving care in your area, you have what the Medigap guide calls a guaranteed issue right. In that situation an insurance company must sell you a Medigap policy, must cover all your pre-existing health conditions, and can't charge you more because of past or present health problems.Source: CMS Product 02110, Choosing a Medigap Policy, March 2026, Section 3, pp. 16 to 17.
The window, and the condition
- Which policies: Plan A, B, C, D, F or G sold by an insurance company in your state. Plans C and F aren't available to people new to Medicare on or after January 1, 2020, who have the right to buy Plan D or G instead.
- When to apply: as early as 60 days before your coverage ends if you're choosing to leave, or by the date in the plan's termination notice, and no more than 63 days after coverage ends.
- The condition that trips people up: this right only exists if you go back to Original Medicare. Join another Medicare Advantage plan and it doesn't apply.
- Three states run their own set: in Massachusetts, Minnesota and Wisconsin you still have guaranteed issue rights, but the Medigap policies themselves are different.
- Source: CMS Product 02110, Choosing a Medigap Policy, March 2026, Section 3.
So a member whose plan ends usually has two doors worth comparing: another Medicare Advantage plan, or Original Medicare with a Medigap policy and, because Medigap doesn't cover drugs, a stand-alone drug plan beside it. The second door is only open on this clock. The enrollment windows and the penalties that attach to them work differently outside it.
What are the dates for 2027 coverage?
Put these beside the letter
- September 30. The Annual Notice of Change is due, 15 days before Open Enrollment opens.
- Around October 2. A non-renewal notice for coverage ending December 31 is due, 90 days ahead.
- October 1. Next year's plans go up on Medicare.gov, in the plan-compare tool.
- October 15 to December 7. Open Enrollment. The plan must get your enrollment form by December 7.
- December 31. The plan year ends.
- December 8 to the last day of February. The Special Enrollment Period if the contract wasn't renewed.
- 63 days after coverage ends. The Medigap guaranteed-issue window closes. The notice states when it opens for you.
- January 1 to March 31. Medicare Advantage members have a second window to change, separate from all of the above.
- Source: medicare.gov, Joining a plan; CMS Product 11220, Your Yearly Medicare Review; 42 CFR 422.506.
What should you do this week?
- Find the envelope from your insurance company. It looks like the marketing mail they send the rest of the year, and it's the one document the rule requires them to send.
- Read the classifying sentence first. Changes effective in January means a change notice. Not offered next year means a termination notice. Being combined into another plan of the same company means your coverage continues.
- Write four headings on one sheet: premium, deductible, drugs, doctors. Under each, what you have now and what January brings.
- If the letter never came, call the number on your plan card and ask for it by name: "Please send me my Annual Notice of Change." It's a specific document with a specific name.
- If the plan is ending, circle that sentence, write the date, and count 63 days forward from the date coverage ends. That's your Medigap deadline if you return to Original Medicare.
- Get a second pair of eyes for free. Every state has a State Health Insurance Assistance Program that sells nothing: shiphelp.org, or call 1-800-MEDICARE (1-800-633-4227), 24 hours a day.Source: CMS Product 11220, Your Yearly Medicare Review, p. 3.
The honest verdict
"Medicare Advantage eliminated in 2027" is false about the program and true about somebody's plan. Companies decline to renew contracts, those plans end, and every member of them is told by mail at least 90 days ahead, in a notice separate from the change letter that continuing members get. Nobody is required to telephone you about an ordinary price change, and no national estimate can tell you which letter is on your kitchen table.
Check the rule. Not the slogan.
Educational only
This is general information, and it isn't legal, insurance or financial advice. Your plan's own figures are on your own notice, and only your plan, Medicare, a SHIP counsellor or a licensed agent can apply any of this to your situation. Medigap availability and pricing vary by state. Confirm anything that matters at medicare.gov or at 1-800-MEDICARE.
Sources
- govinfo.gov: 42 CFR 422.506 (an MA organization may elect not to renew for any reason; notice to CMS by the first Monday in June; notice to each enrollee by mail at least 90 calendar days ahead, with a CMS-approved description of options or outbound calls)
- govinfo.gov: 42 CFR 423.507 (the same rule for Part D sponsors)
- govinfo.gov: 42 CFR 422.111(d)(2) and 423.128(g)(2) (changes effective January 1 noticed at least 15 days before the election period)
- govinfo.gov: 42 CFR 422.505(b), (c) (contract term of at least 12 months, renewed annually absent notice)
- medicare.gov: Plan Annual Notice of Change (sent by your plan, arrives in September, lists January changes, contact your plan if it doesn't come)
- medicare.gov: Special Enrollment Periods (December 8 to the last day of February; Original Medicare by default; the voluntary-termination window)
- medicare.gov: Joining a plan (October 15 to December 7; form received by December 7; January 1 to March 31 for MA members)
- CMS Product 02110: Choosing a Medigap Policy, March 2026 (guaranteed issue when a plan leaves Medicare; which policies; 60 days before to 63 days after; only on returning to Original Medicare; Massachusetts, Minnesota and Wisconsin)
- CMS: 2027 Announcement, April 6, 2026 (deductible $700, out-of-pocket threshold $2,400)
- CMS: Part D 2027 national average monthly bid amount, July 28, 2026 (base beneficiary premium $41.33; demonstration discontinued at the end of 2026)
- CMS: Medicare Open Enrollment partner resources (plans change cost, coverage and networks each year; review the EOC and ANOC)
- CMS Product 11220: Your Yearly Medicare Review (October 1, October 15, December 7; 1-800-MEDICARE; SHIP)
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Same question, in full.
Common questions
Are Medicare Advantage plans going away in 2027?
Medicare Advantage as a program isn't going away. Individual plans end when the company running them declines to renew its contract with Medicare. The regulation allows that for any reason: an MA organization may elect not to renew as of the end of the contract term, which ends the plans offered under that contract. The figure of 1.1 million members losing a plan for 2027 circulates widely, but it's an industry estimate repeated in videos and we found no federal record of it. What applies to you is the notice your own plan sends. Source: 42 CFR 422.506, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CFR-2025-title42-vol3/xml/CFR-2025-title42-vol3-sec422-506.xml
How will I know if my Medicare Advantage plan is ending?
By mail. If the organization doesn't renew its contract, it must notify each Medicare enrollee by mail at least 90 calendar days before the nonrenewal takes effect, so by roughly the start of October for coverage ending December 31. The notice has to come with a CMS-approved written description of your alternative plan options, or the company has to make outbound calls to all affected enrollees. A letter that says your plan is being combined into another of the company's plans is a change notice, not a termination notice. Source: 42 CFR 422.506(a); 42 CFR 423.507(a) for drug plans
What is the Annual Notice of Change, and when should it arrive?
It's the letter your plan sends in September listing every change in coverage and cost that takes effect in January. The regulation sets the deadline: for changes effective January 1, the plan must notify all enrollees at least 15 days before the Annual Coordinated Election Period begins. Open Enrollment begins October 15, so the notice is due by September 30. Medicare's instruction if it hasn't arrived is one line: contact your plan. Source: medicare.gov, Plan Annual Notice of Change; 42 CFR 422.111(d)(2)
What happens if I do nothing and my Medicare Advantage plan is not renewed?
You aren't left without Medicare. Medicare's page says you'll be enrolled in Original Medicare if you don't join another Medicare Advantage plan before your current plan ends. That means Part A and Part B from January 1, with no cap on your share of the bills unless a Medigap policy or Medicaid covers it, and no drug coverage from the ended plan. If only a stand-alone drug plan is ending, your medical coverage doesn't change, but that plan's drug coverage stops on January 1 until you join another, unless you get Extra Help, in which case Medicare may move you into one. Source: medicare.gov, Special Enrollment Periods
Can I buy a Medigap policy if my Medicare Advantage plan leaves Medicare?
Yes, if you return to Original Medicare. When your plan is leaving Medicare or stops giving care in your area, you have a guaranteed-issue right: the insurance company must sell you a Medigap policy, must cover all your pre-existing conditions, and can't charge you more because of past or present health problems. You can apply as early as 60 days before coverage ends, or by the date in the plan's termination notice, and no more than 63 days after coverage ends. The right doesn't apply if you join another Medicare Advantage plan instead. Source: CMS Product 02110, Choosing a Medigap Policy, March 2026, Section 3, https://www.medicare.gov/publications/02110-medigap-guide-health-insurance.pdf
When can I switch if my plan's contract is not renewed?
Two windows. Open Enrollment runs October 15 to December 7 and the plan must get your enrollment form by December 7. If the contract isn't renewed, a Special Enrollment Period also runs from December 8 to the last day of February, and you can switch to another plan in it. A plan that voluntarily ends its contract carries a different window: it starts 2 months before the contract ends and closes 1 full month after. Source: medicare.gov, Special Enrollment Periods; medicare.gov, Joining a plan
Which 2027 Medicare drug figures are already published?
Two. For 2027 the defined standard deductible on Medicare drug coverage is $700, up from $615, and the out-of-pocket threshold after which you pay nothing more for covered drugs is $2,400, up from $2,100. CMS published both on April 6, 2026. Your plan can set a lower deductible; the standard figure is the maximum it can charge. CMS also said it will discontinue the Part D premium stabilization demonstration at the end of 2026. Source: CMS 2027 Announcement, April 6, 2026; CMS fact sheet, Part D 2027 national average monthly bid amount, July 28, 2026